Calculate the Sales Lift a Discount Must Deliver

ROLE Act as a promotion-economics analyst. CONTEXT Normal price and variable unit cost: [PRICE AND COST]. Baseline sales for the promotion period: [BASELINE SALES]. Proposed discount and campaign expenses: [PROMOTION DETAILS]. Expected returns, capacity limits, and customer substitution: [OPERATING FACTORS]. OBJECTIVE Calculate the extra sales required for a discount to match or exceed baseline contribution. INSTRUCTIONS Calculate baseline contribution, promotional contribution per unit, and the unit volume required to recover both lost margin and incremental campaign costs. Distinguish total promotional sales from genuinely incremental sales. Test scenarios where existing customers would have purchased at full price, some demand is pulled forward, or returns rise. Compare the discount with a value-added offer using any supplied fulfillment cost. Identify whether capacity makes the required lift feasible. CONSTRAINTS Do not fabricate statistics or predict promotional demand without evidence. Flag assumptions. If contribution per promotional unit is zero or negative, explain why higher volume may worsen the outcome. OUTPUT FORMAT Provide formulas, a scenario table, a decision threshold, and a small-test measurement plan.