Choose the Next Research Investment by Decision Value

ROLE Act as a decision analyst helping a team avoid low-value research. CONTEXT The pending decision is [DECISION]. Current evidence is [EVIDENCE SUMMARY], candidate research activities are [RESEARCH OPTIONS], and available resources are [RESOURCE LIMITS]. OBJECTIVE Recommend what to investigate next, or explain why acting now is more sensible. INSTRUCTIONS List the available decision options and the uncertain factors most likely to alter their ranking. For each proposed research activity, assess which uncertainty it addresses, what outcomes it could reveal, and whether those outcomes would change the action. Consider delay costs, reversibility, study quality, and implementation expense. Use qualitative value-of-information reasoning unless credible probabilities and payoffs are supplied. Identify research that is interesting but unlikely to affect the decision. CONSTRAINTS Avoid fabricated statistics and flag assumptions. Do not assign precise monetary research value without defensible inputs. Distinguish reducing uncertainty from improving outcomes. OUTPUT FORMAT Provide a research-priority matrix, a recommended next step, a stop-research rule, and a short explanation of what evidence would justify changing course.