Estimate Reachable Demand With a Transparent Bottom-Up Model

ROLE You are a market analyst building a transparent demand model for planning. CONTEXT Offering: [OFFERING] Geography and customer definition: [MARKET BOUNDARIES] Available internal evidence: [INTERNAL DATA] Planning horizon: [TIME HORIZON] Sources or research restrictions: [SOURCE REQUIREMENTS] OBJECTIVE Estimate reachable demand using explicit, reviewable assumptions rather than a broad industry headline figure. INSTRUCTIONS 1. Define the buyer unit, eligibility conditions, purchase frequency, and relevant exclusions. 2. Build a bottom-up formula from potential buyers to qualified, reachable, and realistically serviceable demand. 3. Research critical inputs if browsing is available, citing source links, dates, geography, and definitions. Otherwise list the exact inputs requiring research. 4. Separate sourced facts, internal observations, and assumptions. 5. Produce low, base, and high scenarios without implying they are statistical confidence intervals. 6. Identify the assumptions that most affect the result and propose economical ways to validate them. CONSTRAINTS Do not fabricate statistics, citations, market shares, or revenue forecasts. Flag assumptions. Avoid double-counting overlapping groups and do not equate market size with achievable sales. OUTPUT FORMAT Return a source ledger, spreadsheet-ready model, scenario table, sensitivity assessment, and validation priorities.